While the immediate future of the global economy is not optimistic given the ongoing COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, a new forecast by experts shows that the economy and travel demand will likely recover quickly after the end of the threat.
Oxford Economics – a leader in global economic forecasting and quantitative analysis – has shown that the economic recovery should follow quickly, even though we are currently sinking into a global recession that is likely to result in a decline in international travel of over ten percent.
According to Travel Weekly, Oxford Economics said, “Attention is understandably focused on limiting the damage from the short-term effects of the coronavirus outbreak. However, it is likely that the recovery in global economic activity will increase sharply after the disappearance of disruptions and uncertainties. ”
The company also acknowledged that travel bans and other government-mandated mandates to curb the spread of the virus will have the greatest impact on the travel and tourism industry.
“An unprecedented decrease in global travel is now likely in 2020,” said Oxford, with the Asia-Pacific region being the hardest hit as visitor arrivals are expected to decrease by fifteen percent, 55 million less than a year earlier. Travel to Europe is expected to decrease by almost ten percent in 2020, which is 72 million fewer visitors than in 2019. In North America, arrivals are expected to decline by almost eleven percent, which corresponds to a loss of 16 million visitors.
Nevertheless, Oxford predicted: “As soon as the situation stabilizes, we expect a rapid recovery as the demand for travel has proven robust to recover from the downturns in the past. The travel level is expected to fully recover by 2023. ”
The research group also reported that the US is already in recession, and predicted a gross national product (GNP) loss of $ 350 billion with one million layoffs.